Will the muon g-2 anomaly turn out the be a real phenomenon?

#Physics Forecasting #Particle Physics #Muon g-2 experiment

128

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Ṁ170

2031

10%

chance

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Experimental results from Fermilab and Brookhaven National Laboratory give a value of the anomalous magnetic dipole moment of the muon that is different from the one predicted by the Standard Model. This market will resolve YES if this ever becomes a 5-sigma difference, and there is consensus among physicists that it is the result of something beyond the Standard Model, even if it isn't known precisely what.

It resolves NO if the discrepancy disappears in further experiments or is shown to be caused by some factor other than new physics (e.g. a flaw in the experiment or in theoretical calculations).

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I am pretty sure anomaly is due to theoretical calculation flaw, not new physics. Alternative theoretical calculation is a strong evidence of that. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.12347

Leading hadronic contribution to the muon magnetic moment from lattice QCD

We compute the leading order hadronic vacuum polarization (LO-HVP) contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $(g_μ-2)$, using lattice QCD. Calculations are performed with four flavors of 4-stout-improved staggered quarks, at physical quark masses and at six values of the lattice spacing down to 0.064~fm. All strong isospin breaking and electromagnetic effects are accounted for to leading order. The infinite-volume limit is taken thanks to simulations performed in volumes of sizes up to 11~fm. Our result for the LO-HVP contribution to $(g_μ-2)$ has a total uncertainty of 0.8\%. Compared to the result of the dispersive approach for this contribution, ours significantly reduces the tension between the standard model prediction for $(g_μ-2)$ and its measurement.

predicts NO

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02532-6

predicts YES

I'm thinking I should change the criteria to something other than just a 5 sigma result, since that could still happen if it's due to a flaw in the experiment or theoretical calculations. Maybe I should add something about the result being replicated? I assume no one would object to this, since I'm the only one (other than a bot) betting YES.

predicts NO

@JosephNoonan I interpret "or is shown to be caused by some factor other than new physics (e.g. a flaw in the experiment or in theoretical calculations)." as meaning that simply being 5-sigma away from the current SM prediction based on the dispersive approach as not sufficient for this market to resolve YES given the discrepancy between the dispersive approach and lattice QCD based predictions.

predicts YES

@TomBouley I updated the description to clarify that, in addition to a 5 sigma result, there has to be consensus that it's not due to a flaw in the experiment or calculations.