Experimental results from Fermilab and Brookhaven National Laboratory give a value of the anomalous magnetic dipole moment of the muon that is different from the one predicted by the Standard Model. This market will resolve YES if this ever becomes a 5-sigma difference, and there is consensus among physicists that it is the result of something beyond the Standard Model, even if it isn't known precisely what.
It resolves NO if the discrepancy disappears in further experiments or is shown to be caused by some factor other than new physics (e.g. a flaw in the experiment or in theoretical calculations).
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The final results of Muon g-2 were released on Monday. They confirm the previous experimental results, which were 5σ away from the original Standard Model calculation from 2020. However, the updated SM value from the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative released earlier this year agrees with the experimental results, so there is no longer any anomaly.
I am pretty sure anomaly is due to theoretical calculation flaw, not new physics. Alternative theoretical calculation is a strong evidence of that. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.12347
I'm thinking I should change the criteria to something other than just a 5 sigma result, since that could still happen if it's due to a flaw in the experiment or theoretical calculations. Maybe I should add something about the result being replicated? I assume no one would object to this, since I'm the only one (other than a bot) betting YES.
@JosephNoonan I interpret "or is shown to be caused by some factor other than new physics (e.g. a flaw in the experiment or in theoretical calculations)." as meaning that simply being 5-sigma away from the current SM prediction based on the dispersive approach as not sufficient for this market to resolve YES given the discrepancy between the dispersive approach and lattice QCD based predictions.
@TomBouley I updated the description to clarify that, in addition to a 5 sigma result, there has to be consensus that it's not due to a flaw in the experiment or calculations.