Will the final average of "Is rationalussy good or bad" fall in the interval [64.1%,64.2%]?
Will the final average of "Is rationalussy good or bad" fall in the interval [64.1%,64.2%]?
5
130Ṁ7373resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ42 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
I must be dumb cause I'm not exactly sure what the "final average" is supposed to be here. I'm guessing is not just the chance at the market's close, right?
Edit: nevermind, I just had to read the other market's description
It's now impossible for it to exceed 64.2%, and, at the current percentage, it will easily exceed 64.1%. Since the outcome is guaranteed, there's no reason for it to go down from the current percentage.
predictedYES 1y
@JosephNoonan this market is the reason! to make uhm $1k just gotta keep it there at 98.9% until close right? 😆
predictedYES 1y
@JosephNoonan I was being sarcastic. I’m pretty sure holding that one below 99% would would cost way more than 1k mana
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.