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@JosephNoonan this should resolve to NO.

weird

@deagol his order exists but balance is negative and not enough to cover the order, so ignored. But order exists

@firstuserhere right, I’d seen that elsewhere, but reversed scale?

x-axis

I think this clings it, keep playing roulette for next hour here /tornado/will-the-wvm-market-close-before-ap-eef77399487c

and here for a day and a half more: /BenjaminIkuta/will-the-00-block-be-mined-in-the-n

My spreadsheet says if 9% holds for just one hour (~6 blocks) the average dips below 50%.

made me jump for a second 👀

cc now jesus

just a couple more bullets of this russian roulette 😬🔫

yikes that was 4 in a couple minutes

@deagol It's at less than 50.01% now. Pretty much guaranteed to flip

@JosephNoonan a few minutes

@deagol now?

@deagol I think I survived!

@deagol Yeah, it's down to 49.99% now.

@JosephNoonan the chamber was empty! lol

I read that the mining difficulty is set so that there’s 1 block mined every 10min, but anyone know how reliable/stable this is, how much it varies, frequency of adjustment, etc.? Anything from here might help?

But if we take the 6 blocks/h at face value, and the market needs to survive for about 5 hours at 10% to get the average below 50%, that’s 30 blocks or 30/256=11.7% chance, am I doing it right?

@deagol no, you're actually looking for the inverse of this not happening 30 times in a row. So the correct formula would be 1-(255/256)^30 = 11.08%. In this example our two answers are pretty close, sure, but for other number of 10-minute intervals they would be wildly different. Besides, for numbers above 256 your formula would give a probability value of more than 1, which is impossible.

@MayMeta thanks!

so what happens now that it closed incorrectly? Does the avg keep running with the probability stuck at 10% until the 00 block? Will they reopen it? what a clusterf*ck this thing has been right from beginning!

btw I got an avg of 52.02% when it closed, 51.83% by now, and just over a day needed at 10% for it to flip below 50%

@deagol If this is the final close, I'll treat it as such and use the current average. If not, I think I will treat the average as having been at 10% for the whole time it was closed. That will be easier than trying to subtract out that time, because I don't think there will be any way to determine the exact time that it reopened at (I can read off the exact time that it closed now, but I don't think Manifold has anywhere to display a "time reopened"). Also, it seems more fair to do it that way anyway, since it probably would have remained at around 10% for that time.

@JosephNoonan but even if this ends up being the final close it would be incorrect, why not set it as the block timestamp since that was the true criteria and what traders here always expected?

@deagol My reasoning is that was based on two points:

• Even if the close time is incorrect according to the WvM resolution criteria, the average of the market would still be the average from the time it was opened to the final closing time, so resolving it based on that would seem to be most correct according to the letter of this market.

• The WvM market was always going to close at a random time, so I don't think it violates the spirit of this market to use the close time determined by a freak accident in the calculation. It could have closed at any time from a bitcoin block being mined, and traders already knew this, so it's not like it's a sudden change to the assumed resolution criteria.

I will reconsider this if traders here disagree with that reasoning, though, and I will consider resolving this N/A if it affects the final result, though I'd prefer to avoid that. I don't think it will affect the final result, since WvM will probably be reopened if a '00' BTC block isn't mined soon, and if a '00' BTC block is mined soon, it means the average wouldn't have gone below 50% anyway.

@JosephNoonan just reopened

@deagol Well, I guess I was right when I said the temporary close wouldn't matter.