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Imagine the chaos here if she drops out on Saturday evening.

538 has been talking about whether she'll drop out. They don't agree on whether she'll stay until South Carolina, but they think that even if she drops out before then, she'll wait to make her decision.

250 YES order in at 25% expiring today, buy it and I'll add more

@GCS You think people are going to buy NO all the way down to 25%?

@PlasmaBallin I posted this when it was at 30%

@GCS I think I misread the 10 h ago as 10 min

Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-ddfaaf91288e

She will drop out before suffering the humiliation of being blown out in her home state

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I think people shouldn't be too confident. She's almost surely going to lose New Hampshire, which is basically the only state she had a chance of winning anyway. If that happens, there's a good chance she drops out, especially if she does worse than expected. Though maybe she will stay in the race just so that she can be Trump's replacement in case anything happens to him (like being ruled ineligible).