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She's still behind by 11% with basically all votes counted (here it's listed as >99% reporting, which would make it mathematically impossible for her to come within single digits). This margin has held steady for a while, and there's definitely no way the 1% difference could be made up at this point.

Based on Politico's current data, Haley would have to win about 64% of the outstanding vote to come within 10% of Trump, which sounds statistically impossible to me. Does anyone object to resolving it NO now?

@PlasmaBallin I object

@SteveMahoney What are you expecting to happen with the last 4% of votes that could possibly lead to you winning?

@PlasmaBallin Actually, you can resolve now if you can reverse it if by some chance haley wins

@SteveMahoney fine by me

@PlasmaBallin 97% now

@Joshua But Haley just jumped 0.02% up and Trump 0.02% down. That are major changes. Trust the process.

@nelson If you'd like to buy more No-shares at 1.4%, just say so. It isn't worth it for me to hold the position at this point, I'd prefer some liquidity.

@Lion If you put up an order at 2% I could take some of it.

@Joshua I could take out a loan for that amount.

@Lion Fair enough, looks like at 95% of the vote in now so this should be resolved soon.

Resolve pls.

@SteveMahoney are you currently in NH with a USB stick full of Haley ballots, ready to rug us all?

@mint hahaha no, i'm just gonna ride and die haley

@SteveMahoney You've a talent to set my balance to zero every single day. I'm becoming a @Tumbles because of you. I hope Haley will drop out tomorrow, otherwise the primarys could be fun.

@Lion hahaha. Can they count the ballots a little faster though?

@SteveMahoney

😬

It's official: +10 is now outside of the needle's smaller margin of error:

@PlasmaBallin Can't believe people are doubting the needle smh

Help predict the margin more exactly. It looks like Trump is going to get either 12 or 13 delegates:

steve what are you doing my dude

@Joshua The dark shaded area of the needle is supposed to encompass 50% chance, right? Just asking if you know

@Tumbles No

@PlasmaBallin Well I should probably stop betting on Haley then, shouldn't I

@Tumbles Usually, that would encompass 1 standard deviation, so a 68% chance, and the light red would encompass 2σ for a 95%. But I think they are intentionally making the needle way underconfident so that it will look more accurate. for example, they called the race even when "Haley victory" was still inside the lighter shaded region, and they definitely would not have called it if there was a >2.5% chance that Haley would win.

@Tumbles In fact, they are basically giving away their game when it comes to underconfidence by showing us this graph:

The needle still apparently showed Trump with a <95% of winning when they called the race for him (causing the probability to suddenly go to 100%).

So yeah, the shaded regions of the needle represent fake 68% and 95% confidence intervals that are actually at a way lower probability than they should be.

@PlasmaBallin I wonder if they actually just use 2σ and 4σ margins, but pretend that they're 1σ and 2σ.

@Tumbles Wait a second, I stand corrected. the inner one actually is supposed to be a 50% CI.

So according to the NYT needle, this still has about a 25% chance of resolving YES. But the NYT needle is probably vastly underconfident.

@PlasmaBallin huh

@PlasmaBallin I saw that. It's actually not clear to me that the bar means that on the needle, it might just mean that on the chart. It would make sense if it meant the same thing on both the needle and the chart, but your evidence in this thread is convincing that something weird is up