Will there be at least one state where Donald Trump doesn't get first place in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in that state?
Note: Any reason for Trump failing to win the state counts. This would include, for example, Trump dropping out before that state's primary or Trump being excluded from the ballot in that state.
See also: /JosephNoonan/will-joe-biden-lose-a-single-state
Note: Just to clarify, I am judging a win/loss in Nevada based on the Nevada caucus, since that is how delegates actually get awarded. In any case where there is both a primary and a caucus, the winner will be judged based on total delegates obtained from both. In the case of Nevada, zero delegates are gained by the primary, so the winner is determined solely by the caucus.
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@parhizj Weird, I was looking at CNN because they have a map of all states, but it behind by a few thousand votes. But it's only behind in Haley votes, not Trump votes.
@MaybeNotDepends There haven't been any polls since DeSantis left the race, but in the one poll taken this year, he was at 49% with Haley at only 22%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/utah/
He'll almost surely be higher than 50% now that DeSantis and Ramaswamy have dropped out. And that's assuming Haley is even still running at that point.
@MaybeNotDepends
Important to keep in mind:
https://www.kuer.org/politics-government/2024-02-01/dont-forget-gop-voters-utah-has-a-presidential-preference-poll-in-2024-not-a-primary
"Most of the states will hold a primary election. Utah’s GOP, however, will hold a presidential preference poll during the neighborhood caucuses."
@jks First Nevada having both a primary and a caucus, and now this? So many weird systems in the GOP primary this year. I'm not sure this will affect the results that much, though.
@ClubmasterTransparent The market description say the condition is "Donald Trump doesn't get first place", which IMO includes a scenario where he isn't on the ballot in the first place.
@PlasmaBallin Was that clarification about Nevada in the description always there? I assumed this comment was referring to the Nevada primary, but apparently you’re not counting that?
@MarkHamill I added the clarification to the description recently, but I had already said the same thing in the comments (see here: https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-donald-trump-lose-a-single-sta#OS5lqtyECbswgttk9U5Y)
This comment was referring to the possibility that Trump is left of the ballot for legal reasons (i.e., if the Colorado and Maine decisions to remove him from the ballot were upheld).
@PlasmaBallin Thanks for clarifying.
I don't think you should change the criteria for this question, but those two non-states have more delegates than several states.
For some imperfect arbitrage
https://manifold.markets/PGeyer/will-trump-and-biden-sweep-their-pr?r=UEdleWVy
@Jai Non-state elections don't count. So no "Michael Bloomberg won American Samoa".
Which states have both primaries and caucuses? If any states do have both, I would probably go by the overall winner (who won the most delegates from the primary and caucus combined?)
I would define winning the caucuses based on delegates (e.g., Buttigieg won the Iowa caucus in 2020 even though Sanders had more of the popular vote), since that is what the candidates are actually competing for.
@JosephNoonan WA Democrats use a hybrid system, and I believe the MI GOP recently voted to move to a hybrid model. I believe there are also non-binding primaries (e.g. VA GOP, I think), and primaries that elect delegates to a convention/caucus where delegates may or may not align with the primary vote result/intent.