Resolves YES if any single candidate not named Donald Trump exceeds 1% of the total vote in the Nevada GOP caucus.
Note that due to some shenanigans, Nikki Haley won't be a part of the caucus.
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Since this one was close, I waited a while just to make sure the results reported by news orgs were final. But I found this spreadsheet on the Nevada GOP's official website which suggests that the vote count is in fact final. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PVuZKrmq-yjDEWHXwJA1oK2jUIEfNqfx9LuR9GSNS8/edit#gid=1613273673
The New York Times seems to be the only one still updating their vote tracker. They estimate that >95% of the votes are in, and Binkley only has 536 out of 60,081 votes (0.89%). Even if we take the conservative estimate and say that only 95% of the votes are counted, Binkley would need slightly more than 3% of the remaining votes to break 1%. Notably, that is more than he has currently gotten in any county: His highest proportion is in Esmerelda county, where he got 2.6% of the vote. But that's the smallest county in the state, and his 2.6% is actually from just 2 votes (only 77 people in the county voted). The one county that still has a significant number of votes to count is Lyon County, where Binkley has <1%.
@PlasmaBallin Actually, it looks like USA Today's tracker is just as up-to-date as the Times's. And they have a more precise estimate of the expected vote reporting (97.43%), which would mean Binkley needs more than 5% of the outstanding vote. They also have the exact totals in each county, and Binkley has less than 0.5% of the vote from Lyon County.
@thepurplebull Now NYT, USA Today, and DDHQ all show different results. NYT hasn't updated since I posted that comment, but USA Today has. DDHQ also shows more votes than NYT, but not as many as USA Today, so they must have updated some time in between. Binkley's percentage hasn't changed much, though, he only got 4 more votes.
DDHQ estimates that more than 99% of votes are already counted (even though they're slightly behind USA Today), while USA Today estimates 98%.
Less than 400 votes in, and Trump has already been projected to win at least 23 out of the 26 delegates. Binkley is at 2.4%, though, so he is running ahead of what he needs to resolve this YES. Of course, that's more or less meaningless since he only has 9 votes total at this point. We'll see where his percentage ends up once all the votes are counted.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/08/us/elections/results-nevada-republican-caucus.html