Will any state be decided by <0.5% in the 2024 election? | Manifold

Will any state be decided by <0.5% in the 2024 election?

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resolved Nov 27

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In any state, will the margin of victory for the winning candidate (their percentage of votes, minus the second-place candidate's) be <0.5%? This happened in two states (Georgia and Arizona) in 2020.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Election margins

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Why was this so high? Every non-safe state has counted ~all of their ballots except Arizona, and Trump is up by 6 there. none of the states that have been counted are within 0.5

@PlasmaBallin I think no one noticed this market! I definitely would have brought it down if I knew about it.

Out of the six elections this century, there has only been one where no state was decided by <.5%, so I think the chances of this are pretty high.

predictedYES

@JosephNoonan Also, what the fuck happened in Oregon in 2000? How was it so close?

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