Trump is currently at 54.9% with 91.6% of the expected vote reporting, according to Politico. In total, that's 50.3%, so even if evey single uncounted vote was against him, he still wins a majority.

This seems too confident

Polling seems to have trump at 50-55%

49% does not seem at all unlikely to me

@yaakovgrunsfeld Those polls are from before DeSantis dropped out. Now there are only two major candidates in the race, so it's very likely one of them will get a majority.

@yaakovgrunsfeld Also, the more recent polls are putting Trump at more like 60%.

This market is too confident. The polling average shows Trump slightly below 50%. Of course, the polls could be off, by why would we be 70% certain that they're underestimating him by 3% or more?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/

@PlasmaBallin Of the 2 polls since Ramaswamy dropped out, one of them has Trump at 50% and the other at 52%

@Luvexina That's a good point, though even if we ignore all polls from before Ramaswamy dropped, polling at about 51% doesn't seem like it should lead to 70% confidence here.