Virginia used to be a swing state, but it has been moving further left, with Biden winning it by more than 10% in 2020. However, Youngkin's victory there the very next year proves that it's still possible for Republicans to win the state in a really good year for them. Will 2024 be such a year?
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3.00@NADZOR I think Youngkin's victory can be pretty easily explained by two factors:
1. Elections for state-level positions are far less polarized because they don't determine which party controls the federal government.
2. Youngkin was elected in an extremely Republican national environment. Even the Republican candidate for New Jersey governor came close to winning.
It's not uncommon for these factors to lead to Republican governors being elected in blue states, or vice-versa. For example, Illinois elected a Republican governor in 2014, and that didn't say anything about how it would vote in the next presidential race.
So regardless of whether your theory about low-propensity voters is true or not, it's still true that the factors that lead to Youngkin's victory don't say anything about 2024. I don't expect VA to even be competitive.