Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Basic
9
Ṁ1083Jan 1
1.6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is based on the identical Metaculus question:
It has the same resolution criteria,
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
4% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
4% chance
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 10,000 deaths in 2024?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?
2% chance