Which 2024 GOP candidate will leave the race next? (Round 5)
Basic
9
Ṁ446
resolved Jan 21
100%65%
DeSantis
3%
Trump
26%
Haley
6%
No one leaves before June 8.

This resolves to whichever of the three candidates above (the ones being tracked by FiveThirtyEight) suspends their campaign for the GOP presidential nomination first, provided that it happens before June 8. If no one leaves by June 8 (the date of the last caucuses), resolves to that option.

Note: If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is ineligible to run, I'll count that as suspending his campaign. A ruling by a lower court wouldn't count, since it could be appealed.

I would also count it as leaving the race if one of the candidates died.

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I decided to make a Round 6 after all, adding Binkley as a possible dropout:

Probably don't need another one of these since there are only two major candidates left and it's already obvious who's going to win. But here's a market on whether the NH primaries will lead Haley to drop out:

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