Which 2024 GOP candidate will drop out next? (Round 3)

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Ṁ1042

resolved Jan 16

100%97%

Ramaswamy

0.2%

Trump

0.5%

DeSantis

0.5%

Haley

1.5%

Hutchinson

0.3%

No one drops out before June 8.

This resolves to whichever of the five candidates above (the ones being tracked by FiveThirtyEight) drops out of the race for the GOP presidential nomination first, provided that they drop out before June 8. If no one drops out by June 8 (the date of the last caucuses), resolves to that option.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Republican Party

#2024 Republican Primaries

#2024 Primaries

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I've slightly modified the resolution criteria on this one (from "dropping out" to "leaving the race") to account for the possibility, slim as it may be, that Trump is forced to suspend his campaign.

Ramaswamy just dropped out a few minutes ago (first realized it after my market on how many delegates he'd get suddenly shot down). I confirmed based on NBC that none of the other four have dropped out (it shows a "dropped out" tag next to Christie and Ramaswamy, but not the others).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/iowa-election-2024-live-updates-rcna133678

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