When will ununennium (Element 119) be named?
When will ununennium (Element 119) be named?
9
490Ṁ6502050
9%
Before 2030
15%
2030 - 2034
16%
2035 - 2039
13%
2040 - 2044
12%
2045 - 2049
35%
Not by 2050
The first 118 elements have already been discovered and named. There have been attempts to synthesize the 119th element, but none have been successful so far. This market resolves to the year in which the element is given an official name by IUPAC. The element must be synthesized and its discovery accepted before IUPAC will give it a name.
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I think it's unlikely to happen before 2030. Even if it's synthesized before then, IUPAC is slow to give new elements names. The last batch of elements were named in 2016, but they were synthesized years before that (the most recent one was Tennessine in 2010).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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