When will be the next year that a presidential candidate gets at least 500 electoral votes?
4
280Ṁ972101
21%
Before 2040
15%
2040 - 2048
13%
2052 - 2060
10%
2064 - 2072
10%
2076 - 2084
10%
2088 - 2096
10%
2100 or later
10%
U.S. government collapses, or the presidency no longer exists, before this happens.
Resolves to the next year that a single POTUS candidate gets at least 500 votes in the Electoral College. Faithless electors could affect this (i.e., if the candidate wins 500 votes in the election, but then one of their electors votes for someone else, it doesn't count).
If the years in which elections occur change so that it happens in between these ranges, I resolve to whichever year it is closest to.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
When will the USA elect its first female president?
Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?
22% chance
What will be the next US presidential election to elect someone in their 50s?
When will a non-Republican candidate next win the presidency of the US?
When will a millennial first be elected president of the United States?
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?
17% chance
When will a zoomer first be elected president of the United States?
What will be the next year North Carolina votes for a Democratic presidential candidate?
What will be the next year Florida votes for a Democratic presidential candidate?
What will be the next year Texas votes for a Democratic presidential candidate?