Which of these scenarios will most closely match the Supreme Court's ruling on whether Trump is eligible for office, if there is one before Election Day? If the ruling is completely different from any of these scenarios, it will resolve to Other. If it an edge case or in-between two of these scenarios, a PROB resolution may be necessary.

I am considering the question of Trump's eligibility to include two factors: Is Trump actually eligible to be president, and are states required to include him or not include him on their ballots? Thus, it is possible, though probably unlikely, that the Supreme Court could rule that Trump is eligible, but that it is a matter of state policy whether he appears on the ballot in individual states, or that SCOTUS could rule that he is ineligible, but that states are still allowed to include him on the ballot even though he can't be elected president.

If the Supreme Court only explicitly rules on one of these questions, I will resolve based on the most plausible interpretation of what that ruling means for the other question and on how the ruling affects state policies regarding his presence on the ballot. E.g., if SCOTUS rules that Trump must be included on the ballot but never explicitly says he is eligible, I would still interpret that as ruling him eligible (unless something in the decision contradicts that) since it doesn't make much sense to say that he's ineligible but must be on the ballot. As another example, if SCOTUS rules that he is eligible to run without explicitly saying that states have to put him back on the ballot, but all states that have removed him put him back on due to interpreting SCOTUS's decision as requiring this, then I would also resolve to, "Trump is eligible to be president and must be on the ballot in all states."

For the purposes of this market, the ruling will still count as saying Trump is eligible to run even if it says something along the lines of, "Trump might be ineligible to run, since he might have committed insurrection, but he hasn't yet been proven guilty of this in court and therefore has to be treated as if he is eligible for now."