What will be the outcome of the possible ballot initiative in Arizona to overturn their abortion ban?
AbortionBallot MeasuresArizona
Basic
40
Ṁ2.8k
Nov 7
9%
No ballot initiative
88%
Successful ballot initiative
3%
Unsuccessful ballot initiative

The Arizona Supreme Court just ruled that an abortion ban that was still on the books from 1864 is enforceable: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/arizona-supreme-court-ruling-abortion-ban-rcna146915

This ban is stricter than the 15-week ban that was passed in 2022. However, pro-choice groups will likely seek to get an initiative that would overturn the ban on the ballot in November.

This market resolves based on whether there is such an initiative on the ballot, and on whether it passes. To count for this market, the initiative only needs to be enough to repeal/nullify the 1864 law, not the newer 2022 law.

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6 Comments
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bought Ṁ3 No ballot initiative YES

This market is equivalent to the negation of the "No ballot initiative" option:

bought Ṁ30 Unsuccessful ballot ... NO

I just looked it up to confirm that ballot initiatives in AZ pass with a simple majority (unless they propose new taxes, which this one won't). So the measure is basically guaranteed to pass if it's on the ballot.

@PlasmaBallin I'm holding big YES on the unsuccessful option based on the results of the similar Kansas referendum back in 2022 which failed pretty handedly in a much more securely red state.

bought Ṁ10 Successful ballot in... YES

@Pykess AZ is a lot less red than Kansas though

@Joshua oh fuck I misread the description didn't I

sold Ṁ40 Unsuccessful ballot ... YES

@Pykess well that's the fastest I've ever lost M300.

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