What is the earliest event that most Manifolders on my survey were around for?
What is the earliest event that most Manifolders on my survey were around for?
12
575Ṁ361resolved Oct 10
100%28%
Whales vs. Minnows
2%
When Manifold was still called "Mantic markets"
3%
The 2022 midterms
9%
"The Market"
8%
The AI risk letter market
48%
The LK-99 superconductor market
2%
Most Manifolders haven't witnessed any???
My survey asks which events respondents personally witnessed on Manifold. What is the earliest event that more than 50% of respondents will say they witnessed? The events are ordered from earliest to latest here.
See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.
The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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It was close, but the majority were around for WvM and every event after it. Only 37.6% were around for "The Market".
https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-2-manifold-on-manifold
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.