well the market has now hit rock bottom

Keeping this market at 60% on average still leads to a YES resolution. Any whale wants to take this on?

(I'm eyeballing it, PlasmaBallin will be able to give the exact value).

I don't think any single whale can take this on without prior syndication. The previous case shows how dangerous it is.

well right now it would take 10000 mana to bring the probability back to 60%, and probably an awful lot more to hold it there

@PlasmaBallin when you said this market will be open for a year do you mean it will be open until February or until EOY 2024

It's set to close on 1/27

@PlasmaBallin can we get an end-of-june update on the time-weighted arithmetic mean?

Yup the more this market diverges the more it should collapse and flatline for the rest of the time.

🤑

I can tell this is fake because it's not +29% :-P

😴

If you want some more EXTREME ACTION, you can bet on this market that I just made. It resolves in only a week, so you'll get your mana back much quicker.

And so we settle at about the same probability we were at before...

How do you calculate the market average?

@Qoiuoiuoiu I have a code that can do it. It looks at the timestamp of each bet and the probability after each bet, so I can calculate the time-weighted arithmetic mean.

@Reweirding mmm yummy

@JamesBaker3 You all boring

Small brain: try and win by forcing the market up or down and holding it there, trying to outspend your opponents

Big brain: place a bunch of limit orders to profit from the wiggles

Galaxy brain: go through the profiles of the big YES bettors and the big NO bettors and try to figure out who is most stubborn/rich and therefore more likely to win, and join their side.

@Fion yeah i'm a stubborn small brain NO bettor! i'm working hard trying to burn all my mana here

@Fion Honestly I have no idea what I’m doing just felt like wasting some mana on fun.

The more people bet on NO, the more profit a megawhale or coordinated group could make by pushing it to YES.

@PlasmaBallin I try not to think about that :)

@PlasmaBallin This is why folks should be using limit orders instead

@MRN267 No, I think the way folks are doing it now is just fine. No need to change what you're doing please

@Qoiuoiuoiu Now the issue is reversed. Whales can make more profit by betting on NO now, even though it's still easier to make the market resolve NO than to force YES.