How will the three "rust belt" swing states go in 2024?

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Ṁ4352

resolved Nov 7

100%93%

MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Rep

MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Dem

1.3%

MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Rep

0.4%

MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Dem

0.5%

MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Rep

0.4%

MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Dem

0.5%

MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Rep

0.4%

MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Dem

0.1%Other

Resolves based on which party's nominee wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024. Dem = Democratic, Rep = Republican

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2024 US Election

#Electoral College

#Election correlations

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Odds of MI going D should have slipped after the DNC, weird to see them slightly increase in its aftermath. .

Here's a version of this one for a different group of three swing states:

Manifold currently gives Democrats about a 60% chance of winning Wisconsin, so this one should be lower than the first option by at least a factor of 3/2 (and in reality more than that, since the conditional probability of a Democrat winning WI given that they also win MI and PA should be higher than the unconditional probability).

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