How will the three "rust belt" swing states go in 2024?
#2024 US Election#Electoral College#Election correlations
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Ṁ783
Nov 26
38%
MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Dem
13%
MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Rep
2%
MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Dem
4%
MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Rep
5%
MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Dem
6%
MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Rep
5%
MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Dem
27%
MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Rep
0.5%
Other

Resolves based on which party's nominee wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024. Dem = Democratic, Rep = Republican

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Here's a version of this one for a different group of three swing states:

MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Rep

Manifold currently gives Democrats about a 60% chance of winning Wisconsin, so this one should be lower than the first option by at least a factor of 3/2 (and in reality more than that, since the conditional probability of a Democrat winning WI given that they also win MI and PA should be higher than the unconditional probability).

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