How will Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina vote in the 2024 presidential election?
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Plus
48
แน€4588
Nov 20
4%
All Democratic
84%
All Republican
0.8%
Republican Georgia, others Democratic
1.2%
Republican Arizona, others Democratic
3%
Republican North Carolina, others Democratic
3%
Democratic Georgia, others Republican
4%
Democratic Arizona, others Republican
0.4%
Democratic North Carolina, others Republican
0.1%
Other

Based on which party wins the statewide POTUS election in each of these three states.

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I have a similar market to this one on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania:

All Democratic

This one should be almost as high as the chances of a Democrat winning North Carolina, since any situation where the Democratic candidate wins NC is one where they're also likely to win the other two. Betting it down to 4% makes no sense, unless you also think /ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-c2b132de8821 is extremely mispriced.

@PlasmaBallin I agree this is super undervalued. North Carolina almost flipped blue in 2020 and this time Biden doesn't have to share a ballot with a man who is famous for cheating on his wife. Polls are rough right now but November is a long ways away and Biden has made a serious investment in flipping NC. If he does as good or better than in 2020, NC is his mostly likely pick up.

reposted

Ooooo I like this, good use of dependent market

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