Hm, so AP is reporting that the final delegate actually went to Trump because of some obscure delegate counting rules: https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-delegates-trump-haley-2ec296dd0f14bfd03db4b284b722c49a

The delegate tracker here also shows him with 13: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/elections/results/2024/republican/presidential-delegates#nh_primary

As do NYT and WSJ:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/23/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-republican-primary.html

https://www.wsj.com/election/2024/primary/state/new-hampshire

Wikipedia still says it was 12 - 10, but it is probably going by old numbers, and I trust the sites that are now reporting 13 delegates more, especially AP which wrote a whole article on it rather than just putting it in their tracker. ABC's delegate tracker also says it was 12 - 10, which is still very weird because I would expect it to be accurate and in line with all the other sources.

So it's now 4 sources to 3 in favor of a "13" resolution (as opposed to 0-3 which it was when I first resolved this), with the most trustworthy sources saying it should be 13. That makes me think I should re-resolve it, unless someone has evidence that it was actually AP, NYT, WSJ, and DMR that were wrong.

@PlasmaBallin I just read that AP article, and it's crazy to me how hard that information was to find on election night.

@robm I was looking for that info on election night when I was trying to find out why the last delegate hadn't been allocated, and as far as I can tell, it doesn't exist anywhere publicly online. Which is very weird, since I'd think there would be some publicly accessible source to explain how one of the most well-known primaries works. Even the AP article doesn't explain the exact math involved.

@PlasmaBallin I made a market on whether the primary trackers will agree by the time the next real contest comes around:

@PlasmaBallin are you waiting to see if trackers update for South Carolina? Curious when you plan to make the re-resolve decision.

@robm I was mainly waiting to see if anyone had any objections or additional information that would make me think that the sources saying 12 are right after all. Basically, since I apparently couldn't trust the sources that said it was 12, I want to make sure I can trust the ones saying it's 13 before re-resolving. And I don't want to end up like the news orgs on election night 2000 that kept calling and then retracting the call for Florida.

But since no one has brought up anything to make me doubt the re-resolution, I think I can re-resolve it now. Obviously if something weird does happen where it turns out that 12 was right all along, I can re-re-resolve.

@PlasmaBallin Meta-market on whether something like this will happen again:

@PlasmaBallin sounds good. I went from -3 to +133, so I don't feel impartial, but this seems like the right call until there's new evidence

@robm Well, the person who originally informed me of the misresolution was impartial, and I lost mana from re-resolving it, so I don't think anyone is going to question the re-resolution on the grounds that someone was biased.

@PlasmaBallin now we just need a source for how South Carolina counts delegates

@PlasmaBallin Sorry, I didn't see your comment here after sending you the information. As far as I am aware (I point out I'm not an American citizen), all information published until now is preliminary. None of it is official, the official results are usually published a few weeks after the primary takes place. If it's anything like in other democratic countries, especially if it's a close call, votes are counted multiple times to make sure everything is right. There are usually made a lot of mistakes. The official results should be published whenever the officials make sure everything is right. The best resource for this, as far as I'm aware, will be the official government website of NH with official results: https://www.sos.nh.gov/

This often is not in line with users' wish to have questions resolved as fast as possible, but maybe a point to think about in the future. [This shouldn't be part of this discussion.]

@robm As far as I understood, the allocation of delegates (I point out I'm not an American citizen) is simply the percentages of votes over 10%. That's why every vote counts, and results are likely to change. I think, based on the information right now, the question is correctly resolved, but it could change in the future once votes are recounted.

A lot of sources still only show 12 vs. 9 delegates (ABC News even has two delegate trackers, one which shows Haley with only 17 delegates and another which shows her with 18 delegates). But Christopher Randles pointed out three sources below that do show that the last delegate went to Haley, as expected. Does anyone object to resolving this now?

@PlasmaBallin seems fair, and I say that while holding YES 13

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/NH-R#0319 shows Trump 12 N Haley 10 as does Wikipedia as does https://abcnews.go.com/elections (there is both 32 17 from 23 Jan and 32 18 from 1 day ago.)

Still no news on the last delegate, though based on the current vote totals and the fact that more than 99% of the expected vote is reporting, I don't see how it could possibly go to Trump if they're all awarded proportionally (he would need a proportion of 12.5/22 of the total votes between him and Haley to win it, and he doesn't have that).

I was trying to find more detailed information on New Hampshire's primary rules to see if I had missed something. I did find some information saying that the delegates aren't all the same - there are a combination of statewide, Congressional district, and "automatic" delegates (I have no idea what that last one means), but I can't find any information anywhere on whether this could actually affect the delegate count to make it not-quite proportional.

@PlasmaBallin the more I learn about the US electoral system...

I'm going to keep holding my *13* shares. 12 seems likely, but for 3% with this much uncertainty it seems like a deal

Politico still lists the last delegate as unprojected. I don't really get why this is, unless there's something I don't understand about how the delegates are awarded.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/new-hampshire/

Haley has 9 and Trump 12. One unpledged delegate left.

Haley is now projected to get at least 8 delegates, so Trump can't get more than 14.

So that's 9 or 10 delegates to Haley? I wonder if the media will pick this up as her "overperforming".

@robm It is an overperformance relative to polls (538's final average had her losing by more than 17 points, but she ended up losing by only about 11), but still nowhere near where she needs to be to win the nomination.