Resolves yes If the Harris Yes position on Kalshi's presidential market trades within plus/minus 1% (1 cent) of the equivalent Polymarket position throughout October 15.
The last traded prices will be used, but if they are not available, the midpoint of ask/bid will be used to substitute. If the the total prices of Harris + Trump exceed 100, I will normalize so that Harris_price / (Harris_price+Trump_price) is used.
If either market does not trade on that day, the market will resolve N/A.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ849 | |
| 2 | Ṁ535 | |
| 3 | Ṁ79 | |
| 4 | Ṁ64 | |
| 5 | Ṁ60 |
Kalshi has Harris YES at 45¢, and Polymarket has it at 43.1¢, which is a gap of more than 1¢.
This is from is 8:16am Eastern time on October 15th, 2024. Market should resolve NO.
@traders I should clarify that if the the total prices of Harris + Trump exceed 100, I will normalize so that Harris_price / (Harris_price+Trump_price) is used. Let me know if you disagree
@PlainBG Can you do normalization on both platforms, whether they are over or under 100 combined? It looks like Polymarket prices add up to LESS than 100.