The resolution will be based on expected/average number of electoral college votes predicted to be won by Harris. I believe this approach is better at measuring predictive accuracy than a binary approach.

Specifically, predictions made for these 11 close states will be included in the calculation for a total of 150 votes:

• Pennsylvania (19)

• Wisconsin (10)

• Michigan (15)

• Nevada (6)

• Arizona (11)

• Georgia (16)

• North Carolina (16)

• New Hampshire (4)

• Minnesota (10)

• Virginia (13)

• Florida (30)

The remaining 388 non-swing states/votes are allocated based on Cook Political Report's projection, regardless of whether there are upsets.

Which site will come closest to the final electoral result with the lowest absolute difference? (Predictions will be taken on November 4, the day before the election.)

Example calculations:

• Nate Silver predicts Pennsylvania to be 52% probability for Harris = 19 electoral votes * 52% = 9.9 votes Harris

• Polymarket predicts Pennsylvania to be 38% probability for Harris = 7.2 votes Harris

• Each site gets 54 votes Harris for California (a non-swing state)