Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the year in which the next papal conclave occurs. A papal conclave is the assembly of the College of Cardinals convened to elect a new pope. The year of the conclave will be determined based on official announcements from the Vatican or reputable news sources reporting on the event.

Background

A papal conclave is convened upon the death or resignation of a pope. The most recent conclave took place in May 2025, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025. During this conclave, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was elected as Pope Leo XIV. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The timing of the next conclave is uncertain and depends on factors such as the health and tenure of the current pope. Historically, the interval between conclaves has varied, with some popes serving for decades and others for shorter periods. Traders should consider these variables when making predictions.