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I knew it

what happens if >50% and tails and <50% and heads (i might be missing something).

@soph Then the answer is NO because it doesn't satisfy the condition.

Will you flip the coin with a public random number generator? How can we be assured that you don't have a way to manipulate the result?

@Anthony I'll use https://random.org

Are you going to use the precise market value or the rounded one?

@JuJumper I will use the precise value.

@JuJumper How do I access that?

@Physictype need the API to get the precise value.

@ShitakiIntaki "probability": is a function of "p" and the "YES" and "NO" shares remaining in the "pool".

@Physictype you can hit this URL:

https://manifold.markets/api/v0/slug/will-this-market-be-predicted-yes-a

And read off the value for "probability" - currently 0.4999999999999996.

@chrisjbillington it is dynamic but when I looked it reported "pool":{"YES":314.91881947855927,"NO":304.65409610050665},"probability":0.49999999999999956,"p":0.5082837089226685,[...]

I don't quite know what the difference between "p" and "probability" is, but it's "probability" that changes when you make a bet and seems to correspond to the rounded number displayed on the page, so I would guess that's it.

Should still clarify what will happen if "probability" is exactly 0.5. That is, after all, a perfectly able to be represented floating-point number.

@chrisjbillington Probability is the market probability, and p is an internal parameter of the automated market maker, it's not important for most purposes.

@chrisjbillington "more than" or "greater than" means greater than and not equal to 0.5.

@Physictype Indeed. A strict reading of the question implies that it resolves NO if it's exactly 50 (in both coin flip outcomes), but it's the sort of thing it can be useful to clarify.

This market is equivalent to just flipping a coin randomly to decide the outcome. Any binary value XOR a random bernoulli variable is just a random bernoulli variable.

Can I translate this question as the following?

Market resolves YES iff:

(market > 50 and heads) or (market < 50 and tails)

@chrisjbillington Yes, should I make that the title?

@Physictype probably not, but as written I think it's either missing a word or two or otherwise hard to parse, I'd maybe rewrite as something like:

Will this market be greater than 50% at close if my coin flip comes up heads, and less than 50% if it comes up tails?

@Physictype Yes. The current head and description are confusing.

@Physictype Does the market resolve NO if the probability is exactly 50 %?

@howtodowtle Depends on the coin flip

@Physictype Flip coin again if it lands on edge, or resolve NO, or NA? some coins have a non-zero chance of landing on neither heads nor tails.

@ShitakiIntaki I was planning on using an online coin... hehe...

@Physictype there is a chance you receive an error from the server on your first attempt

@KongoLandwalker hmm, maybe. if so, I try again.