The Stakes: Since the passing of Raila Odinga in late 2025, ODM has split into two warring camps.

• The 'Utility' Wing (Team B): Led by Gladys Wanga, Hassan Joho, and John Mbadi. They argue that staying in Ruto’s "Broad-based" government is a strategic utility to gain resources before 2027

• The 'Mutiny' Wing (Team A): Led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino. they argue the government deal is an exercise in futility that kills the party's soul. They want a "Mutiny" to reclaim the party’s opposition roots.

The Question: Who will be holding the steering wheel of the "Orange" by the time the 2027 official campaign begins?

Resolution Criteria (The "Contract"):

This market resolves on January 1, 2027, based on the following:

TEAM A (Mutiny for Unity) Wins if: 1. Edwin Sifuna remains the Secretary-General (SG) of ODM. 2. The party officially fields a Presidential Candidate other than William Ruto. 3. The faction successfully pulls the party out of the "Broad-based" Cabinet.

TEAM B (Utility for Futility) Wins if: 1. ODM officially joins a 2027 coalition with UDA to support Ruto's re-election. 2. Sifuna is removed or resigns as SG, replaced by a pro-government figure. 3. The party stays in the Broad-based government through the 2027 nomination period.

OTHER: Traders can add specific names (e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang'i) as alternative paths for the party's direction.

Note: This market may resolve early if a formal coalition agreement for the 2027 General Election is signed and filed with the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) before Jan 1, 2027.

.DISCLAIMER: This market is created for the purpose of sentiment analysis and predictive forecasting only. The framing, title, and options do not constitute an endorsement or political stance by the creator. All outcomes and descriptions are speculative; their validity and the risk of participation are at the sole discretion of the trader. The creator assumes no responsibility for individual trading decisions or the political interpretations of this market.