This market will resolve yes if and only if working lie detection exists before 2035. The nature of this question's precise resolution is somewhat difficult, but I put forward these as tentative criteria.
The lie detection need not rely on any specific type of data- physiological, gestural, lexical or neural- or some combination- or anything else reasonably available would all be fine.
A method that only works by making irrevocable and potentially unwanted alterations to a person does not count (e.g., wiring up their cortex surgically)
I will not put an exact measure on how accurate the method needs to be, but it would have be quite substantially more accurate than existing methods.
If it only works with the cooperation of the person being examined, so long as it is possible to verify whether or not they are cooperating independently, this counts.
The legal status of the method is irrelevant.
If there is ambiguity, I will resolve it by poll, and I will err on the side of judging that there is ambiguity.
Update 2024-17-12 (PST): Truth compulsion methods (methods that force someone to tell the truth) will count as valid lie detection methods, as long as they meet the other criteria specified above. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00