The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.

Since 1950, the five largest one-day drops in the S&P 500 in history were -20.4% on 1987 Sep 19, 11.98% on 2020 Mar 16, and 9.92% on 2020 Mar 12, 9.04% on 2008 Oct 15th, and 8.93% on 2008 Dec 1.

Some have speculated that the ongoing debate over the US debt ceiling could result in a US default which could be catastrophic for the stock market. Additionally, it's possible that the panic in the run-up to this potential default date could result in a market downturn.

To track this, this question asks will 2023 see a top five largest one-day drop in the S&P 500 as judged by data from 1950 onwards? That is specifically, will there be a >8.93% one-day drop in the S&P 500 sometime during 2023? Note that despite this question being framed as due to the US debt ceiling, this question could resolve for any reason as long as the condition is met.

I will be trading on this market because it resovles by clearly objective sources. (Whereas I will not trade on any market I create if the market is subjective.)