When will this question:
https://manifold.markets/PeterSchmidtNielsen/is-the-final-bit-of-my-48bit-secret
... first go <10% or >90%, and then stay there for a solid hour? In some sense, this is a proxy for the problem being solved, but with a lot of other shenanigans possible, of course.
(I will count based on the start time, so if it goes to 95% at 23:30 PDT on June 29th, and stays there for an hour, that counts as June 29th, not June 30th.)
Edit: Oops, I did not realize "other" was an answer when I created this problem. "other" will resolve to no.
Edit: Yes, that eensy teensy blip back into the 10% ≤ x ≤ 90% range at 12:04 does count, and disqualifies June 29th, absurd as that is. I said "solid", and didn't clarify any conditions on that, that's on me.
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lol. Hmm, yes, I really wish I had been ultra-turbo-blurbo specific! I'm going to ask a neutral third party I know who is very into prediction markets his opinion, and then resolve based on that. My guess (but not a promise!) is that he's going to say "Nope, that counts as not being \"solid\"!".Obviously you're right that any reasonable person would agree, but I feel like my hands might well be tied to be unreasonable!
Edit: Never mind, this is me being cowardly trying to pass the buck. I'll just say it counts.
@PeterSchmidtNielsen It dropped down to 88% at :04 (4m past the hour), so the earliest it can be resolved would be :04 (or :05, depending on how you count)
Actually, yes, I think I should just have the courage of my convictions and not pass the buck to a friend who is probably asleep in Alaska anyway. I'm going to say that eensy teensy blip does count (and be unreasonable!).
And yes, agreed, @MartinSundhaug, I therefore cannot resolve at least until 1:04, or possibly later if there is more shenanigansing.
@BoltonBailey I did not, apologies, I'm relatively inexperienced with creating questions on this site. I'll keep that in mind going forward. I intend to resolve any other added answer as "no", even if e.g. someone adds "July 4th" and then that ends up being the answer, I'll still resolve it no and just resolve "Later" as yes.
@BoltonBailey Is it the "Creator only" toggle? There seems to be a z-index bug where the tooltip for that option shows below the pop up, so I can't read it, and I don't know what it does. I guess I'll try to adjust the page's CSS to see if I can figure out what the hidden tooltip says.