Will Timnit Gebru change her mind on longtermism before July 1, 2022?

152Ṁ110k

resolved Jul 1

Resolved

ALL

This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in its execution does. May 6, 8:28am: UPDATE: After changing the subject (in this thread: https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1520532465474883584) away from longtermism and towards a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, a recent thread of Gebru's has continued to criticize longtermism (https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1522450716563976193?cxt=HHwWgsCtzYi36qAqAAAA).

Politics

Technology

Science

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ6
2		Ṁ5
3		Ṁ5
4		Ṁ3
5		Ṁ3

People are also trading

Will Ana Kasparian leave TYT by the end of June 2025?

36% chance

Will A be at her current firm at fall equinox 2025?

58% chance

Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026?

13% chance

By 2030, will 50% of voters identify as longtermists?

3% chance

By 2030, will 20% of voters identify as longtermists?

4% chance

Will Tara do MIT Spokes before the end of 2028?

Sort by:

https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1529230632148164614

@DavidBolin Does the pronoun "they" here refer to longtermists, or to people who dismiss longtermists? Because that could be relevant wrt market resolution.

I checked follow-up comments who seemed to imply that "they" refers to longtermists, but that doesn't affect the resolution of the market (only Gebru's statements count here).

Another one today: https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1528004915125227521 There is absolutely not a 5% chance of her changing her mind.

predictedYES

@DavidBolin Well, there's the obvious strategy of making an attempt to change her mind, purchasing a large share of YES, and reaping the profits.

predictedYES

I should probably make an "end of 2022" Gebru market as well, though.

Twitter threads can be made on impulse; if this were an op-ed in the New York Times, that point would make sense. But there is some probability on this Twitter thread being an impulsive call, and her later regretting it.

People do NOT change their minds about twitter threads like that and admit it within a few months; so if she changes her mind, she will definitely not admit it with this timeframe.