Will Timnit Gebru change her mind on longtermism before July 1, 2022?
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resolved Jul 1
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This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in its execution does.
May 6, 8:28am: UPDATE: After changing the subject (in this thread: https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1520532465474883584) away from longtermism and towards a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, a recent thread of Gebru's has continued to criticize longtermism (https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1522450716563976193?cxt=HHwWgsCtzYi36qAqAAAA).
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@DavidBolin Does the pronoun "they" here refer to longtermists, or to people who dismiss longtermists? Because that could be relevant wrt market resolution.
Another one today:
https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1528004915125227521
There is absolutely not a 5% chance of her changing her mind.
@DavidBolin Well, there's the obvious strategy of making an attempt to change her mind, purchasing a large share of YES, and reaping the profits.
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