Will Timnit Gebru change her mind on longtermism before July 1, 2022?
1.7%
chance
This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in its execution does.
May 6, 8:28am: UPDATE: After changing the subject (in this thread: https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1520532465474883584) away from longtermism and towards a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, a recent thread of Gebru's has continued to criticize longtermism (https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1522450716563976193?cxt=HHwWgsCtzYi36qAqAAAA).
@DavidBolin Does the pronoun "they" here refer to longtermists, or to people who dismiss longtermists? Because that could be relevant wrt market resolution.
I checked follow-up comments who seemed to imply that "they" refers to longtermists, but that doesn't affect the resolution of the market (only Gebru's statements count here).
Another one today:
https://twitter.com/timnitGebru/status/1528004915125227521
There is absolutely not a 5% chance of her changing her mind.
Peter Berggren is betting YES at 5% 7 days ago
@DavidBolin Well, there's the obvious strategy of making an attempt to change her mind, purchasing a large share of YES, and reaping the profits.
Peter Berggren is betting YES at 5% 7 days ago
I should probably make an "end of 2022" Gebru market as well, though.
Peter Berggren bought M$4 of YES13 days ago
Twitter threads can be made on impulse; if this were an op-ed in the New York Times, that point would make sense. But there is some probability on this Twitter thread being an impulsive call, and her later regretting it.
People do NOT change their minds about twitter threads like that and admit it within a few months; so if she changes her mind, she will definitely not admit it with this timeframe.
Devansh Pandey bought M$10 of YES22 days ago
lol
Peter Berggren bought M$5 of YES23 days ago
Price is quite low on NO. People change their minds all the time, on more strongly held beliefs than Gebru’s (see: Robert Nozick and libertarianism)