The Gävle Goat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%A4vle_goat) is a famous display in the city of Gävle, Sweden, consisting of a large version of a traditional Swedish Yule goat. It is famous largely because it has been the victim of many arson attacks in the years since it has been publicly displayed for the first time.

This question resolves to YES if the Gävle Goat erected by the Southern Merchants is burned down before February 1, 2023, and NO otherwise. Note that other damage to the goat, so long as it is not caused by fire, will not lead to a YES resolution. Incomplete fire damage will be judged as a YES at the discretion of a Goat Adjudication Team formed by myself and no less than two other people who have been involved in forecasting with me in the past.