Will Primoz Roglic start the 2023 Tour de France?
resolved Jul 1

Race starts 1 July 2023.

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predicted YES

Not sure if this will get through to past participants, but Roglic has made some hints he might start the Vuelta.

I present three new markets!

predicted NO

What a long strange trip it’s been.

predicted YES

It is looking extremely likely to be a no. The currently scheduled closing time is a couple hours before Stage 1 starts. I will probably not be able to resolve this market at the exact time the TDF Stage 1 starts. If there are any strong arguments for either option, let me know:

- Resolve it a few hours before Stage 1 starts

- Resolve it a few hours after Stage 1 starts

predicted NO

@PelotonEliza If it were me, I'd wait for the stage to start just to be certain and then resolve it when I can. Few hours delay is not an issue at all and actually a pretty swift resolution, don't worry about it :)

predicted NO

This is very interesting: https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/primoz-roglic-confirms-no-tour-de-france-no-worlds-but-maybe-the-vuelta-a-espana/

First it confirms Giro+Vuelta was the plan right from the beginning. But this is the best part:

He was asked if he would change teams to try to get a shot at winning the Tour de France.

“The main thing for me is to achieve the goals that I still lack,” Roglič said. 

“So far I have been getting all the support I wanted. So I don't see any problems going forward. But when we can no longer achieve these goals…”

I read that as what I have been thinking the whole year: Roglič top priority is to win the Tour and he cannot be happy with Jumbo putting him as #2 behind Jonas (Jonas to Tour, him Giro+Vuelta). And that means, for next year if Jumbo cannot guarantee him to go to the Tour as #1, he will switch teams.

So, I'm increasing my probability that he will ride next year's tour, and that he might switch teams (new markets). I can see him with Ineos: the only tactic that their managers know is the Sky train, which would fit Roglič great. But perfect choice for him would be Bahrain IMO, plenty of cash to pay him + great domestiques:

predicted NO

@egroj I was wondering if he’d make a deal with either Jonas, or his compatriot Tadej for that matter, that he wouldn’t do the Tour this year if they didn’t ride next year, but that sounds implausible when I write it. Why would they not ride next year. I hadn’t thought of the team switch possibility. Interesting!

predicted NO

@NicoDelon and I can also see Remco switching to Ineos, which could mean next year the GOAT TdF: Pogacar, Roglic, Jonas and Remco, each with great teams behind.

New markets:

predicted YES

@egroj Thank you, these are going to be fun to monitor!

predicted NO

@PelotonEliza we must hear from you!

predicted YES

@JakeEatonc5e2 1% seems too high but I can't seem to figure out how to place a limit order at a lower figure. I still think 15% was too low through April, and it should have gotten lower as the Giro went on longer, rather than higher. Probably should have sold it down to around 5-8% as soon as the Dauphine and Suisse races finished without major Jumbo catastrophe.

predicted NO

@PelotonEliza Since it was mostly I who put the NO limit orders to upper bound the probability, I can explain why it went higher as the Giro progressed. I had a budget of 20-25k mana that I was willing to invest in the market and my main goal was to avoid putting all of it in too early at low probabilities, while at the same time still managing to invest all of it until the resolution becomes clear and the probability drops. All of that meant that as I was able to buy more and more NO, I lifted the limit orders upwards to higher probabilities to try to get even better prices since I had less mana remaining to be invested :)

bought Ṁ82 of NO

Ah well, it's been fun. Not doing the Tour was the rational decision and fair play to the people here who called it. Thought the gamble on Roglic being tempted by the double was worth it, but I should never have underestimated Jumbo's thoroughness when it comes to preparing their big riders for the most important races.

sold Ṁ923 of YES

@NicoDelon he said it himself 😭

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@Checktaschu Well it’s not like we didn’t warn you.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@NicoDelon There is a part of me which wants to say 'told you so' but we have to keep in mind that we were betting on 20-25%, so most of the time it was expected it would end up like that anyway. It's a reasonably strong suggestion that we were making good trades here but it's not outright confirmed. The Vuelta hypothesis did turn out to be true, though, and that interview I linked below a while ago seems to have been pretty spot on.

I've really enjoyed all the discussions here and that's probably my favourite market I've participated in, thank you everyone.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@NamesAreHard i was basically only coping after he didn't pull out of the giro after week 1, objectively it was decided at that moment

yes they were keeping the line open, but the team never wanted him there

furthermore he was only just meh at the giro, yes he won two one weeks and a GT this season, but he arguably looks weakest since 2020, would have been nothing more than a domestique at the tour anyways, and i would assume he wants to win it

predicted NO

@Checktaschu I’d be lying if I said told you so. Because honestly I didn’t know. These were just warnings. Like @egroj i would have been happy to see him ride TDF even if it meant losing a ton of mana.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Same.

This market made me question my sanity at times.

I still kinda hope he surprise announces just before.

predicted NO

For all the tdf nerds on here, you may have noticed that I created a Tour de France group. Please add your markets to it if I haven’t done so yet. Have fun!

predicted YES

Remco proving that not starting Tour de Suisse was the right move. Guy doesn't look great and obviously isn't riding the Tour either. Roglic on the other hand...

predicted NO

@Checktaschu Isn’t the issue that he’s recovering from COVID? I have no idea why you think that has any bearing on Roglic and the TDF.

predicted NO

@Checktaschu Do you have any updates?

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Roglic is doing Slovenian National Championships, alongside two time Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar.
Seems like slovenian NCs to TdF is the way to go.

predicted NO

@Checktaschu Do you have a link to the results?

predicted NO

@Checktaschu When does the race start?