The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.
The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey.
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@PelotonEliza I think the multiple choice market already exists here https://manifold.markets/Peilbeo/how-many-different-riders-will-wear?r=UGVpbGJlbw
@PelotonEliza There is now a new update to multiple choice questions, I wish I knew before making all these....grr.....
There are two conflicting factors that make the 2023 edition of this question interesting:
1. The first week is NOT set up so that multiple riders are "guaranteed" to shuffle the yellow jersey between each other. In the "short Prologue, then three sprints" way to start a grand tour, it is quite likely that 2 or 3 riders wear yellow in the first week. But this year's Tour with a very difficult first stage, might give the first yellow jersey wearer a lead of 10 or even more seconds that cannot be easily stolen away by a sprinter on bonus seconds. It's sure to be a very strong rider and that rider would not be as likely to lose the jersey in the next few days.
However we also have:
2. There is a serious chance the first yellow jersey goes to a major GC contender who will be ready and willing to give it away to a breakaway within the first week, at the first reasonable opportunity. And if the jersey starts going to the break in an early stage like 2 or 3 (with a big break), it could put the race in a situation where 10+ riders are ahead of the GC favorite and the jersey could hop between several riders by Stage 5/6/9.
Later in the race, anything goes and seems similar to any other year.
AFAICT pulling from Wikipedia data:
5> has happened in 26% of tours
On average, tour sees 3.96+/-1.33 different yellow jerseys.
Line chart looked like 6 hasn't happened for a long time, maybe some concentration in the last 20 years to closer to 4 on average, but it jumps around a lot.
I could fool myself into thinking about how it might progress -> MvdP -> Neilson Powless -> Wout --> Vingegaard whatever but, man, who knows. So just going on the data 40% seemed high.
@JakeEatonc5e2 plus 5+ years ago the winners were more pure climbers than all-rounders like they are nowadays, for example if Tadej recovers fully it could go Pogacar -> Pogacar -> ... -> Pogacar 😂