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MANIFOLD
Will any Manifold user go from being Bronze in Season 1 to Masters in Season 5? (The shortest possible time)
9
Ṁ190Ṁ2.6k
resolved Sep 3
Resolved
YES

For this to happen, the person in question would have to have taken either of the two following paths:

S1 Bronze -> S2 Silver -> S3 Platinum -> S4 Diamond -> S5 Masters

S1 Bronze -> S2 Gold -> S3 Platinum -> S4 Diamond -> S5 Masters

All of this is conditional on the general structure of leagues remaining the way it is right now. Renaming of leagues will have no effect on the resolution of this question. If a relevant* extra layer is added or removed this question will resolve N/A

*if S4 adds a new league between Bronze and Gold I will not consider this to be relevant to the resolution of this question, likewise if something above Masters is added.

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i'm so close, just a couple more days!

predictedYES

Alright I ran the numbers and out of the current Diamond leagues, 40 out of 176 people were in Bronze in Season 1 and qualify for this. Looks like a pretty good chance that this resolves YES.

(fun fact: as of when I looked this up, in 4/8 Diamond leagues the rank 1 user started in Bronze)

Could you post the list of the 40 people? I'm curious.

predictedYES

@Joshua I'll do this list by @ but I won't tag them because it'd be annoying. In no particular order this is the list of people:

ScipioFabius

DonaldWithman

jgyou

42irrationalist

MP

therealfloomby

RatUziCat

Tyranizard89

Historian474

Nona

Bartleby

dustysheep

Feurolex

CloudCat

ChristopherRandles

Checktaschu

Haws

VaclavRozhon

Blomfilter

BoulderHolder

mistersplice

JustJoking

J0j0

NasaLies

jojomonsta

QuantumObserver

RobertCousineau

Berg

twink_joan_didion

Ramble

Shalun

GodDamn

AadiKulsh

Vjickstra

CourierSix

Joshua

ShadowyZephyr

pain

OracularJay

apetresc

I checked some of these manually and I'm pretty confident it's correct but there could be a few more or less because of some copy pasting mistake.

@PedeJo
So far the people on track to promote are:
Nona (#4, 2598 mana earned)
Václav Rozhoň (#3, 2887 mana earned)
Blomfilter (#2, 3771 mana earned)
Tyranizard89 (#2, 3837 mana earned)
ShadowyZephyr (me) (#4, 8410 mana earned)
Haws (#1, 10139 mana earned)
Christopher Randles (#2, 12816 mana earned)
Robert Cousineau (#2, 16383 mana earned)
Quantum Observer (#1, 19530 mana earned)
Joshua (#1, 21850 mana earned)

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr @Joshua is stupefying. Almost all legitimate prediction income too.

predictedYES

I'm hoping one of us newbies can top the leaderboard next season hahaha. DM me if you ever wanna conspire.

predictedYES

I'll probably make a list of people who can still do it sometime this month, should make it easier to actually predict on this market.

predictedYES

I'd like to see that!

I don't think I'm going to promote this time, my league is really competitive

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr You got this

So far so good

@Joshua the ego on this guy