Resolves YES/NO to majority vote of poll I will hold around market close. If the poll is 50/50 I will resolve to PROB=50%.
The question I have proposed to you refers to the possibility of the UN Security Council, the body in charge of maintaining international peace and security, imposing coercive measures on Israel for its military actions against the Gaza Strip, a territory Palestinian under the control of the Islamist group Hamas. These measures could include economic embargoes, travel restrictions, severing diplomatic relations or even the use of force.
The current situation between Israel and Hamas has worsened since last October 7, when the Palestinian group launched an offensive with rockets and drones against several Israeli cities, kidnapping several civilians and soldiers. Israel responded with an intense aerial bombardment campaign on Gaza, causing hundreds of deaths and injuries, as well as severe damage to infrastructure and basic services. Both sides have rejected international calls for a ceasefire and negotiation.
Public opinion on this conflict is very diverse and polarized, both inside and outside the region. Some sectors support Israel's right to defend itself from Hamas terrorist attacks, while others denounce Israel's violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, accusing it of applying a system of apartheid and genocide against the Palestinians. There are also those who advocate for a peaceful and just solution that recognizes the right to existence and security of both peoples.
According to a survey carried out by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) in Spain in September 2023, 54.7% of Spaniards are in favor of the UN Security Council imposing sanctions on Israel for its air attacks against Gaza, while 28.9% are opposed and 16.4% do not know or do not answer. These data reflect a majority tendency in favor of the yes option in the question posed. However, this opinion may vary depending on the political, social and cultural context of each country or region.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ345 | |
| 2 | Ṁ283 | |
| 3 | Ṁ250 | |
| 4 | Ṁ153 | |
| 5 | Ṁ110 |
I did the best job I could to run a poll to resolve this question properly. No has won by a significant amount. I am re-resolving to No based on the result of the poll. I verified that neither side was obviously and completely dominated by fake accounts but I cannot attest that every single voter was a unique human.
Going forward, I want to plead with all participants that you should always trust Manifold to resolve questions according to the given criteria and that you should bet as if we will not allow markets to resolve without following the given guidelines. See the poll Evan posted for more!
People active in this market might wish to place a vote in a relevant poll:
https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/should-manifold-be-more-active-in-m
It appears that Percado did not initiate a poll for this particular question. My understanding is that the primary objective was to ascertain manifold’s stance on the issue through the percentage of this active market.
I would like to point out that punishing an individual, who may not have English as their first language, for the usage of the term “poll” seems unfair, especially given that the purpose of this market was sufficiently clear.
From my short time on this platform I believe that Manifold values aligning with the market’s intentions rather than strictly adhering to the literal interpretation.
Moreover, the presence of racially discriminatory remarks in the comments is deeply concerning. It is distressing to note that an administrator, who is likely monitoring these comments, has not taken action against such racism.
@Raph I'd actually ditto that maybe banning is a step too far. I do think his English is probably fine, but I don't think anything he said or did justifies the ban.
Yeah, issuing a ban seems excessive. I didn't even care if the market wasn't reversed; getting scammed on occasion is part of the fun for me.
@Raph you were quick to give 5 stars on this market and I'm guessing it's because you profited off of the mis-resolution, so don't be giving morality lectures (also, in case you were referring to me: "Spaniard" is not a race)
@AlQuinn 5 stars is an impulse to a lot of people. I do it all the time accidently to markets with a shitty creator.
@Raph Multiple commenters had asked Pecado to clarify how/where he would conduct this poll. He was snarky and evasive. Then he pulled this stunt.
@Raph
No it was delibrately misresolved: "Resolves YES/NO to majority vote of poll I will hold around market close. If the poll is 50/50 I will resolve to PROB=50%." this is a clear resolution criteria, and doesn't lead much room to intepretation (other than, where the poll was posted, and how long).
> I would like to point out that punishing an individual, who may not have English as their first language, for the usage of the term “poll” seems unfair, especially given that the purpose of this market was sufficiently clear.
I don't think (90%) this was the problem here.
Unresolving pending results of real poll. You have like 5 days. Vote.
@ICRainbow I think @SirSalty might have to do something. The market creator can always unresolve and re resolve.
@Haws The creator cannot unresolve after I choose an option, so I am choosing N/A for the time being. I will unresolve again after the poll is complete.
I created a question about a fair resolution here:
https://manifold.markets/NivCohen/will-should-impose-sanctions-on-isr
@Pecado the crowd is really curious to see the evidence of your poll. Since you have taken the most profit from this question, they're right to be curious. Please show your poll results.
@Pecado Okay. Some users are not going to be happy with that so if you get low ratings on this market, that will explain why.
I will try to explain why the users won't be happy:
When someone purchased Yes or No in this market, they were trying to predict what your poll results would be. That is not the same as voting in a poll. For example, someone who would vote Yes in the poll themselves may have bought No shares if the market was at 80% and they thought the poll had a 60% chance of picking Yes.
If you want to get the best ratings for this market, I strongly suggest you unresolve it, then conduct a poll using the Poll market type (Create Question -> Poll), then wait a few days for the results, and only at that point resolve this market according to the results of the poll.
Hope that makes sense.
@Pecado I'm not happy with this. The main reason is that as @Eliza explains, I don't think this counts as a poll. But I'm also not happy because now it's on the record that I voted NO, which I would not have done, as I agree with the proposition!
@Eliza "bought Ṁ200 YES from 47% to 64% 2d", bought the most advantageous option and then chose it. Scam.
@Emanuele98 Let's tag @SirSalty the community manager -- they do have the power to both re-resolve this and apply punishments if they think the market has been resolved fraudulently.
I can see that a significant number of users are quite upset with how this turned out.
It kind of makes me wish the actual poll did happen. Maybe someone wants to do the poll anyway?
@Eliza It was pretty easy to see that this was an underspecified market, and a number of people made exactly that comment prior to resolution, so I hope that bettors update appropriately on the wisdom of betting on such markets. Caveat aleator.
(I don't object to admin action)
@MartinRandall Whether there is a punishment or not, I think it is extremely important that an actual poll happens, as the description promises it. While creators have autonomy over their question, changing things that are in the terms is not appropriate.
I don't want to run the poll myself but I trust that someone in here knows how to make one and post it to this market.