Background The National Institutes of Health (NIH) recently announced a significant policy change that caps indirect cost rates at 15% for all grants. This represents a major shift from previous policy where indirect cost rates could be much higher. The change has sparked considerable concern within the research community, as these indirect costs help support essential research infrastructure at universities and research institutions.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve as YES if the Trump administration officially announces or implements a reversal or modification of the 15% indirect cost rate cap by 11:59 PM ET on February 28, 2025. The reversal must effectively eliminate the 15% cap or increase it to at least 50%.

The market will resolve as YES if the administration claims the cap is in place but has in practice removed or raised the cap.

The market will resolve as NO if the policy is modified but the 15% cap remains in place

Considerations

• Historical indirect cost rates were typically much higher than 15%, often ranging from 40-60%