Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Grindr experiences a widespread service outage or crash affecting users in the Anaheim, CA area on February 28, 2026. Resolution will be determined by:

• Official Grindr status page (https://status.grindr.com/) showing a confirmed incident or outage on that date

• Multiple independent reports from users in Orange County, CA confirming inability to access or use the app

• Grindr's official statement acknowledging service disruption in the region

The market resolves NO if Grindr maintains normal service availability throughout the day, even if individual users experience isolated technical issues unrelated to a widespread outage.

Background

On February 28, both a Mini Gay Days event and a MAGA takeover are planned at Disneyland Resort in California. "Mini Gay Days" is affiliated with Gay Days Anaheim, a group continuing a tradition of LGBTQ+ events at Disneyland which date back to the early 1990s, while this is the first time any "MAGA Invasion" event has been planned. The 805 Patriots — which also operates a Facebook page under the name "SoCal Patriots" — announced a meetup of "like-minded patriots" at Disneyland as part of an unsanctioned event planned for February 28, 2026.

Considerations

App crashes typically result from server overloads, network congestion, or technical failures rather than from real-world events. While large gatherings can theoretically increase local data usage, Grindr's infrastructure is designed to handle significant user spikes. A crash would require either an unprecedented surge in concurrent users or an underlying technical failure coinciding with the event date.