Background

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if:

• Any high-ranking Trump Administration official (Cabinet member, senior White House staff, ambassador, or appointed advisor including Elon Musk) publicly describes, states, or characterizes the relationship between the United States and Russia as an "axis" or being part of an "axis" during the 2025 calendar year.

• The statement must use the specific word "axis" to describe the US-Russia relationship.

• A statement by a high-ranking official not using the word "axis" but endorsing a third party's use of it will resolve as Yes if the statement supports the use of the term.

• Statements that might be understood as jokes WILL resolve as Yes.

• The statement can be made in any public forum, including speeches, press conferences, interviews, social media posts, or official documents.

This market will resolve as NO if:

• No high-ranking Trump Administration official uses the term "axis" to describe US-Russia relations during 2025.

• Officials use other terms like "partnership," "cooperation," "alliance," or "strategic relationship" without specifically using the word "axis."