Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the exact number of Super Heavy Booster (Booster 20) Raptor 3 engines that fail to ignite at liftoff or cut off during ascent, prior to the start of the planned Most Engines Cut Off (MECO) sequence.

The primary source of truth will be the official SpaceX webcast telemetry graphic (streamed live on X @SpaceX and archived on the SpaceX Launches page).

Specific Rules:

• MECO Definition: MECO (Most Engines Cut Off) refers to the planned shutdown of 30 of the 33 booster engines to allow for the hot-staging maneuver (typically occurring around T+2 minutes and 40 seconds into flight). Engines that shut down as a planned part of this MECO sequence do not count.

• Engine-Out Count: Any engine represented as inactive (red, dimmed, or unlit) on the circular 33-engine booster telemetry graphic immediately prior to the MECO sequence will count toward the total. This includes both engines that fail to ignite at liftoff and those that shut down prematurely during ascent.

• Catastrophic Failure: If the Super Heavy booster experiences a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) or other catastrophic failure before reaching MECO, the market will resolve to the number of inactive engines shown on the final readable telemetry frame prior to the failure.

• Telemetry Discrepancies: If the webcast telemetry is missing, unclear, or contradicts official reports, the market will resolve based on SpaceX's official post-flight mission review, or secondarily, a consensus among leading aerospace reporting outlets such as NASASpaceflight.

Background

Starship Flight 13 represents the second test flight of the upgraded Starship V3 (Block 3) configuration, pairing Booster 20 with Ship 40. The booster features 33 of SpaceX's streamlined, next-generation Raptor 3 engines.

During the debut V3 flight (Flight 12 in May 2026), the Super Heavy booster lost one outboard Raptor engine during ascent. Later in the flight, issues during the boostback burn (where only 20 of 33 engines successfully relit) contributed to an early termination of the burn and an eventual high-speed water impact. SpaceX has implemented several hardware and software changes for Flight 13 to improve Raptor 3 start/restart reliability and make the flight control software more robust to engine-out scenarios.

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