Resolution criteria

The market will resolve based on the official flight data, telemetry, or mission post-flight report released by SpaceX regarding Starship Test Flight 12.

• If the flight terminates, fails to reach stage separation, or if SpaceX does not release data allowing for the verification of the specific number of engines that shut down during the sequence, the market may resolve to the best available information or N/A if it remains ambiguous.

• This market does not take in account the number of engines shut down during the Hot Staging sequence.

Background

Starship Flight 12 marks the debut of the "Version 3" (V3) Starship and Super Heavy vehicles, powered by the next-generation Raptor 3 engines. A key characteristic of Starship's flight profile is "hot-staging," a maneuver where the upper stage ignites its engines while still attached to the Super Heavy booster to increase payload capacity and improve orbital insertion efficiency.

• Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The MECO (Main Engines Cut Off) event is explicitly excluded from this market's resolution. MECO precedes the Hot Staging sequence and is expected to involve ~30 engines shutting down. Only engine shutoffs that occur before MECO (and before the Hot Staging sequence itself) count toward resolution.