In my experience, conferences are more successful when they update their website with an ask for the following year as soon as possible.
The Manifest website is now extremely stale at almost a half a year old with no information about what is going to happen in the following year.
https://www.manifestconference.net/
It still says, "Manifest 2023" on it.
This is a huge wasted opportunity and it tells me that Manifold is not paying attention. This was covered in the New York Times.
If you Google, "Manifest" it still shows up as 2023 for the date.
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@PatrickDelaney it's fine. it was updated in line with the criteria more than a week ago! no one objected to yes then, either. :)
@PatrickDelaney My 2c: Since resolutions can be reversed, cases with very high confidence should simply be resolved and then, if anyone has a valid reason, an after-the-fact discussion can still happen.
@gpt4 I got a bad review once for resolving wrong early and then after correcting it later, my review was never updated, so unfortunately I don’t want to do that.
@PatrickDelaney I don't understand the question - are you looking for "anyone to object to me resolving this YES already" or "choosing to delay this until either the website fully redirects or until March 1st, 2024, whichever comes first"? Perhaps I'm misreading your comment but this seems like two contrary suggestions?
@shankypanky Sorry, to clarify...anyone has until March 1st, 2024 to object, unless the website fully redirects. On March 1st, if there are no good objections, and the website(s) stay as they are, it's going to resolve YES. Does that make sense? Trying to handle edge cases cleanly since I bet in the market myself and stand to gain from a YES resolution.
I sold my 25k mana YES position bc your comment made me lose confidence in my YES bet. However, you seem reasonable, so i dont think the 99% price is unreasonable in either direction. That said, 1% returns for 1 week isn’t great so people might care about that. If anyone does, lmk and I’ll loan you the amt you have held in this market in YES shares, to be payed when this market resolves
@Bayesian true - this back and forth has been disproportionate to the amount I stand to gain from what I thought would be a quick and easy turnaround 😅😅
@PatrickDelaney woahhh there, I object to that somewhat. If current NO holders feel like they were deceived, we can figure something out with them. but this gives a wayyyyyy too strong incentive for schemes involving alts and people pretending they have positions they don't have, if they can just buy this down and complain. veryyy strongly recommend to essentially listen to people who have already bet here, and to encourage people who have not bet to largely stay out of it. since nothing is likely to change about the website now that it's been updated, I would also somewhat encourage early closing and 1 week of deliberation, but would advise against letting just any user buy NO and complain, bc that messes up the incentives a bunch and encourages toxicity. you've shown you care about reviews, so someone could say "this is bs! me and my friends @alt1 @alt2 @alt3 etc. all think this is a clear NO resolution, but we're willing to meet you in the middle because we're reasonable folks, at 50%! that's fair right? also btw we feel so strongly about this that we'll all give you a 1 star review if you don't agree". I would hope you would see through that scheme if it did happen, but no point in incentivizing it :p
@PatrickDelaney I think it's entirely possible to get the full outlook now if @SirSalty or @Austin chimed in to say whether they even intend to redirect. if not, no sense on waiting to see if that happens - it should just be resolved at the current state. fair?
@shankypanky @saulmunn are we planning to move it to manifest2023.com and redirect the current URL? Would it redirect to the 2023 site or the new one? Help save the traders sanity on this market by clarifying haha
@saulmunn just another poke - I still feel really strongly that with or without the redirect, the site has been updated as requested by the market (I see the banner and dates for 2024 are still prominent there which was the criteria). still, I'd love to have this resolved as I have a lot of mana out on unresolved markets at the moment and Patrick is pretty insistent for whatever reason that this answer would help to resolve this already closed market sooner than later. any update on the plans for a redirect, or can it be resolved based on the current state of things? 🧡
@shankypanky sorry about missing this comment! i'm glad patrick resolved this correctly, but i do think it (a) was down for ~a day before the redirect, and (b) started redirecting before the end of february :) seems like either of (a) or (b) should count for a yes rez.
@saulmunn thanks for chiming in Saul 🧡 ultimately I think (hope) we all agree that by updating the 2023 site with 2024 information, it satisfied the requirements here, and so far that seems to be the case. happy to have this resolved and happy to have a ticket for the event ✨