Preface / Inspiration:

There are lots of interesting A.I. leaderboards out there and I think we could all benefit from knowing what's out there and what they are working on, sort of a meta-leaderboard overview.

Market Description

Several Universities and Organizations lay claim to being highly authoritative with regard to A.I.

Of course hindsight is 2023, so while all sorts of holy prognostications and WAG's (wild ass guesses) may presently be touted as dogma, we can all come back together and review how things went at the end of the year.

Market Resolution Threshold

Which organization will have proven to be the most prescient?

• This market will be resolved solely by the market author or his desginee via PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE, meaning that the burden of proof is on the betters to support their case with convincing arguments, and that it's more about weighted liklihood that something happened, rather than more of a, "reasonable doubt," thing, which would have a much higher standard. This means that likely percentages will be dolled out among institutions.

• I really don't like people just stating things and not backing up their arguments. Therefore, for the purposes of this market, comments with links and evidence to back up arguments will be read and reviewed. This includes minutia and lawyering about the definition of the word, "prescient."

• Comments with no citations will be disregarded.

• This doesn't mean don't attempt to make convincing argument, it just means something like, "C'mon, it's organization X, we all know they are the best," means nothing. A-priori social beliefs do not count, there must be evidence given.