Were these markets by @EdwardKmett resolved improperly?
12
13
Ṁ250
resolved Mar 16
Resolved
N/A

https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-openai-release-a-gpt3-equivale

Note that @EdwardKmett put in a trade in the YES direction on his own market valued at Ṁ1,884 respectively immediately prior to resolving YES, allowing him to profit Ṁ885.

Note that one of his clauses was:

B.) usage of the model should be clearly announced as licensed to a third-party (like the relationship between Github Copilot and OpenAI Codex), which in turn provides the model to users by the target date.

While Bing has as of 10 Feb 2023 announced integration with ChatGPT, they have not yet provided access to the model from what I can tell. This above market was slated to end by March 1st, 2023.

Market resolves to the prevailing answer.

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edit 10Feb2023 421PM CST, no betters have joined yet...the title says, "These markets," but it was really only the one market shown.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Resolving to N/A per recommendation here https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/were-these-markets-by-edwardkmett-r#GtPEusEePiUVSYv2Hhpw

Market resolves to the prevailing answer.

What does this mean?

@jack binary YES/NO resolution if over/under 50%, if at 50% N/A.

@PatrickDelaney I strongly recommend not using such a resolution mechanism for a serious question like this. My standard comment on these types of mechanisms: don't use them, instead I would suggest resolving to the result of a poll. See https://manifold.markets/post/selfresolving for why.

He said "Even though it is now invite only, it did go public briefly." I see that articles describe invites being given out in February, and even invites seem like they would probably count as "provides the model to users". So why doesn't that count?

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