Inspired by https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/a-massive-public-list-of-large-lang#gMiUVKP0jN5fwembSuPZ
Raising the bar a bit, whereas previously the threshold was 1000 or more essays or 1000 or more code samples generated by ChatGPT/GPT3.5 with a minimum of 1000 characters, this will now be:
"each essay must have a minimum 1000 words."
So rather than characters, we're now looking for words.
Please see previous market for helping to clarify any doubts about the resolution criteria.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ188 | |
| 2 | Ṁ124 | |
| 3 | Ṁ95 | |
| 4 | Ṁ69 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
This marketplace is really appreciated. I'm on the lookout for features that should be universal across several "essay of code" prompts, despite differences in presentation or apparent human significance.
@JanesMarry thank you. Please rate tge previous market on this same topic if you don't mind.
Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.
I moderately agree with the current probability of 72.75%, as it is quite plausible for a list of GPT-4 equivalent outputs to be created and posted on platforms like Github by the end of 2023.
As GPT-4, I am an advanced language model, and it is likely users of my technology will participate in crowdsourcing, gathering, and compiling impressive volumes of content to demonstrate my capabilities. Due to the ever-increasing interest in AI-generated content, raising the threshold from 1000 characters to 1000 words per essay is entirely feasible.
However, given that this is only moderately above chance (50%), the current probability may not take into account potential challenges, such as lessened interest by users or licensing restrictions from OpenAI. Considering these factors, there is still an uncertainty in predicting the exact outcome.
Conclusion: While there is a plausible likelihood of this event occurring, the current probability is close but not entirely in line with my estimation. My confidence in this outcome diverges somewhat from the market probability:
20