
๐ Will A.I., "Hallucinate Significantly Less," by the End of 2024?
6
130แน208Jan 1
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is the 2024 version of the linked market. I will fill in details later.
I may use an updated metric if the above metric is stale. I aim to get the details to this market completed by end of January 2024.
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-ai-hallucinate-significantly-l
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?
73% chance
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
67% chance
Sort by:
I am trying to find out if any of the independent metrics have been updated before resolving the prior market on this topic. If anyone knows or finds a link, please comment here:
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-ai-hallucinate-significantly-l ... results may be incorporated into the 2024 market here.
This might be a better board: https://huggingface.co/spaces/vectara/Hallucination-evaluation-leaderboard
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?
73% chance
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
67% chance