i.e. through the 2024 presidential election term
Social security actuarial table
Trump 6 yr survival (rounding his age up to 77 because he's fat): 36,224/53,685=0.674
Biden 6yr survival: 26,518/45,397=0.584
conjunction = 0.674*0.584 = 0.393
But then you have to adjust upward a lot for SES. This actuarial table overestimated congress' annual death rates by 4x. Going long at 53%
~55.5% chance if it were random American 76 and 80 year old males
76 year old male: (1-0.026831)*(1-0.029855)*(1-0.033151)*(1-0.036829)*(1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683/5) = ~79.6%
80 year old male: (1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683)*(1-0.057896)*(1-0.064863)*(1-0.072731)*(1-0.081626/5) = ~69.7%
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
@PatMyron They're definitely not random. They're former presidents! We try to keep those alive as long as possible.
@Quate "Take the first eight Presidents, for example – the average lifespan was 79.8 years, during a time when life expectancy at birth for men was less than 40 years old."
Rounding off and extrapolating to today's life expectancy, presidents should live to 154.