I'm curious about how much this differs from a decently calibrated model at https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm... an obvious hypothesis is that there isn't much of an intersection between Manifolders and Hockey fans. edit: turns out this is false which is nice—it was just (I guess) people using the whole season Elo ratings which didn’t correspond super well with playoffs
How do you profit off things like the Blues not making the playoffs but being valued at 2% here? Just buying lots of other options? [that seems rather inconvenient.]
@Heliscone one of the disadvantages of this market type is that it is hard to short such responses. One of the things we learn in exploring prediction markets.
@FedorBeets Yeah, this market at the low and high end is silly: the panthers were at <0.5%, Bruins at ~24%... whereas the panthers just tied the series with the Bruins. I wish they would implement a good way to short responses... why is betting "no" on an option not supported?
@PatMyron Got it, that makes a ton more sense, especially since the ELO appears to be rolled over from the regular season, where the bruins were so dominant.
I'm not sure that using the same ELO for the playoffs is super valid since tons of play+call style shifts dramatically in the playoffs--moneypuck is a more quick-reacting model that updates based on shot dange/expected goals throughout the game. Sometimes I feel that moneypuck overupdates a bit...
I guess we can see which works better throughout the playoffs!!
Bet on the Leafs here! https://manifold.markets/GarrettBarry/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-on?r=R2FycmV0dEJhcnJ5