Which team will win the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Final?
33
closes Jun 19
PatMyron avatarFlorida Panthers
45%
PatMyron avatarVegas Golden Knights
43%
PatMyron avatarDallas Stars
11%
PatMyron avatarToronto Maple Leafs
0.3%
PatMyron avatarCarolina Hurricanes
0.1%
PatMyron avatarSt Louis Blues
0.1%
PatMyron avatarTampa Bay Lightning
0.1%
PatMyron avatarPittsburgh Penguins
0.1%
PatMyron avatarSeattle Kraken
0.0%
PatMyron avatarMontreal Canadiens
0.0%
PatMyron avatarBoston Bruins
0.0%
PatMyron avatarEdmonton Oilers
0.0%
PatMyron avatarNew York Islanders
0.0%
PatMyron avatarMinnesota Wild
0.0%
PatMyron avatarLos Angeles Kings
0.0%
PatMyron avatarNew York Rangers
0.0%
PatMyron avatarNew Jersey Devils
0.0%
PatMyron avatarColorado Avalanche
0.0%
PatMyron avatarAnaheim Ducks
0.0%
PatMyron avatarArizona Coyotes
0.0%
PatMyron avatarBuffalo Sabres
0.0%
PatMyron avatarCalgary Flames
0.0%
PatMyron avatarChicago Blackhawks
0.0%
PatMyron avatarColumbus Blue Jackets
0.0%
PatMyron avatarDetroit Red Wings
0.0%
PatMyron avatarNashville Predators
0.0%
PatMyron avatarOttawa Senators
0.0%
PatMyron avatarPhiladelphia Flyers
0.0%
PatMyron avatarSan Jose Sharks
0.0%
PatMyron avatarVancouver Canucks
0.0%
PatMyron avatarWashington Capitals
0.0%
PatMyron avatarWinnipeg Jets
0.0%

hockey playoffs

Sort by:
Heliscone avatar
Helisconebought Ṁ5 of Seattle Kraken(edited)

I'm curious about how much this differs from a decently calibrated model at https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm... an obvious hypothesis is that there isn't much of an intersection between Manifolders and Hockey fans. edit: turns out this is false which is nice—it was just (I guess) people using the whole season Elo ratings which didn’t correspond super well with playoffs

Heliscone avatar
Helisconebought Ṁ10 of New York Rangers

How do you profit off things like the Blues not making the playoffs but being valued at 2% here? Just buying lots of other options? [that seems rather inconvenient.]

Fedor avatar
Fedor

@Heliscone one of the disadvantages of this market type is that it is hard to short such responses. One of the things we learn in exploring prediction markets.

Heliscone avatar
Helisconebought Ṁ5 of Florida Panthers

@FedorBeets Yeah, this market at the low and high end is silly: the panthers were at <0.5%, Bruins at ~24%... whereas the panthers just tied the series with the Bruins. I wish they would implement a good way to short responses... why is betting "no" on an option not supported?

Heliscone avatar
Heliscone

@PatMyron Got it, that makes a ton more sense, especially since the ELO appears to be rolled over from the regular season, where the bruins were so dominant.
I'm not sure that using the same ELO for the playoffs is super valid since tons of play+call style shifts dramatically in the playoffs--moneypuck is a more quick-reacting model that updates based on shot dange/expected goals throughout the game. Sometimes I feel that moneypuck overupdates a bit...
I guess we can see which works better throughout the playoffs!!

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myron

Related markets

Which teams will make the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Final?
Which team will win the 2023 MLS Cup Final?
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)52%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)11%
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)47%
Which team will win the 2023 USL Championship Final?
Which team will win the 2023-2024 NCAA College Football Playoff National Championship?
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2023 NHL playoffs?45%
Which team will win the 2023 NWSL Championship?
Which team will win the 2022–23 UEFA Champions League?
Who will win the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2023?
Which team will win the 2022–23 UEFA Europa League?
Which team will win the UEFA Europa League 2022-2023?
Which team will win the 2023 Campeonato Brasileiro?
Which team will win La Liga (Primera División) 2023-2024?
Who will win the 2024 March Madness NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament?
CSK to win IPL 2023?49%
Sport 2023: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?74%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the NL East division in 2023?68%
Will the San Jose Earthquakes qualify for the 2023 MLS Cup playoffs?73%