From @JamesMedlock on Twitter : https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1689091721513279488
The resolution criteria for this bet would be if more than 10% of UPS drivers be replaced.
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1689094019069140992
Manifold currently predicts 13% that AI wipes out humanity before 2030 (https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8), and a 29% of UPS drivers being replaced. So that means you have like a 16% chance of actually getting your package delivered by a robot. 🙃
@LoganZoellner Maybe the robots will keep whatever roboticized thing UPS evolves into, they'll probably need their things delivered too! And if they keep Manifold around, maybe they'll resolve this YES for us. I believe.