Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before the end of 2030?
resolved Dec 1

This question resolves YES if Sam Altman returns to any part of the OpenAI organization as CEO, by December 31, 2030. It’ll resolve YES when there is a press release by OpenAI or official new documentation from the company that lists him as CEO.

RESOLVED YES per official company release:


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TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚bought Ṁ5 of NO

He hasn't returned has he? "We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo."
Notice the "in principle". would like for the resolution to wait for an official announcement, there's no rush (other markets are at 95%)

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ10 of NO

@ParthAgrawal A moderator can un-resolve this if you agree it was premature (I think it was - Sam isn't currently CEO and there isn't a formal agreement)

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚predicted NO

@ParthAgrawal notice the market's last trades, mostly "sold YES" because the market (plausibly) overreacted to the news

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO

@TheBayesian Agreed, an agreement to do X is not the same as doing X.

ParthAgrawal avatar
Parth Agrawal

@chrisjbillington Yes, I think these arguments are fair. Not sure how to prompt this but I'd like the market to be unresolved

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

@Joshua could you unresolve this market at the creator's request here?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO

@ParthAgrawal I think there's a button to do that? Should be visible on your UI. If not @SirSalty can take care of it.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

@IsaacKing Ah that's right, creators can unresolve within ten minutes or something, I forgot about that (and have never looked for the option)

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ1,649 of YES

@TheBayesian Various reliable media outlets’ headlines are not leaving any wiggle room for the deal to potentially collapse before it happens.

colorednoise avatar
colorednoisebought Ṁ10 of NO

This is so absurd that until it happens I can't give it over 70

colorednoise avatar
colorednoisesold Ṁ84 of NO
JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

I created a more general version of this: