Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before the end of 2030?
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resolved Dec 1
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YES

This question resolves YES if Sam Altman returns to any part of the OpenAI organization as CEO, by December 31, 2030. It’ll resolve YES when there is a press release by OpenAI or official new documentation from the company that lists him as CEO.

RESOLVED YES per official company release:

https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board

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He hasn't returned has he? "We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo."
Notice the "in principle". would like for the resolution to wait for an official announcement, there's no rush (other markets are at 95%)

@ParthAgrawal A moderator can un-resolve this if you agree it was premature (I think it was - Sam isn't currently CEO and there isn't a formal agreement)

predictedNO

@ParthAgrawal notice the market's last trades, mostly "sold YES" because the market (plausibly) overreacted to the news

predictedNO

@TheBayesian Agreed, an agreement to do X is not the same as doing X.

@chrisjbillington Yes, I think these arguments are fair. Not sure how to prompt this but I'd like the market to be unresolved

predictedNO

@Joshua could you unresolve this market at the creator's request here?

predictedNO

@ParthAgrawal I think there's a button to do that? Should be visible on your UI. If not @SirSalty can take care of it.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing Ah that's right, creators can unresolve within ten minutes or something, I forgot about that (and have never looked for the option)

@TheBayesian Various reliable media outlets’ headlines are not leaving any wiggle room for the deal to potentially collapse before it happens.

This is so absurd that until it happens I can't give it over 70

I created a more general version of this:

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